This is how it's done, objectively, not just copying fractal patterns like many do. I see this as a clear bear market, we just got started, so, don't HODL like fools and get ready to short rallies.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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I'm long short term, then I will flip short higher.
The swings are very tradeable if you're skilled, and manage risk correctly. Long from 9428, wanted to get confirmation from lower timeframe and daily, but weekly is down, so we need to be careful.
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Weird out of the blue drop, but might remain sideways before going higher still, let's wait and see I'd like to short higher, ideally.
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We might gravitate around this level, while sideways, low volume here, seems to act as support - BTCUSD chart
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Playing it safe, I sold spot, waiting for more clarity, the drop below support is not good news, but it could also bounce. Let's stand aside and wait. Ultimately, we need good odds and positive risk reward to trade, and here the long lacks both. Last: 9080
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Check out this chart: Halving is indeed critical...explains the 20 month bear market.
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Looks like we are tracing the weekly downtrend indeed.
BTC: Daily downtrend signa ends tomorrow, right on time for the G20 news -if I'm not mistaken, correct me if I'm wrong- We will try to reenter spot longs and maybe do a bit of margin once safe, keeping close watch on this.
I'm in cash since the last uptrend failed -pictured above- I didn't update here but my clients and me sold nonetheless.
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Prices could bottom in one wild swing after landing anywhere between 4900 and 6940 Let's wait and see.
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Life can be simple with the right tools...BTCUSD chart
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BTC could be building a new 7 day decline signal here Better to wait and see what happens, the timing of the G20 news would match the confirmation for this signal possibly, keeping an eye on it, sitting in cash.
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I think the FOMO is exhausted, stops have been hit, now we have to wait for the G20 to be out of the way, I'd be willing to bet we see a fall from here, but still risky to act ahead of the news - BTCUSD chart
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The weekly downtrend in this chart might still be in control, for 2 more weeks or so, we might continue lower, sold at 7090 and waiting in cash. Was long from 6545, for a nice 2.36% profit.
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#BTCUSD acting strong in the daily and weekly, heading for a strong daily close, we may get a chance to exit longs at the 11k zone
Weekly downtrend failed to hit target, right on time, same as my prediction, matching the 2014 move, just not how people usually compare it. I compared on the basis of the chart signals and the time implications from the current events. Trying to fit a pattern without any rules won't work.
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So far so good: We approach the top zone, it might be there in a few days, and grind sideways before falling again. Maybe we see this top align with the Concensus event by May 15th. People are starting to get bullish again (so damn late!).
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I haven't updated this idea on time. My clients had the real time alert though. We're in cash currently, sold at roughly 9135 anticipating hard to predict volatility. There's a chance we hit the top already, but it could grind on for longer, we won't know until we key some time pass.
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Likely sideways since we had no follow through down in 2 days.
If we do hold around 8800-9200 we might get a new tight stop long entry with big risk reward, likely culminating in fulfilling the weekly forecast of a top at 10762-11300 by early June or sooner.
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I'm out of long positions, back in cash...waiting to short. Last 9816.7
To be safe, I want to avoid risk from weekly sellers suddenly frustrating the daily uptrend. Keep in mind we're in a bear market in the longest term timeframe, and it can turn the tide suddenly, once long term sellers act again.
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The 9914 level held, weekly sellers regained control after being tested once more...market is tracing the bear market pattern, while aligning to time at mode rules.
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Market traced the bear market pattern I had anticipated correctly, the question now is: will it bottom around here, or, over time break down lower and test the 1500-1850 support zone?
I want to see more overwhelmingly negative sentiment signals everywhere, and fundamentals align for a last shakeout decline, to rapidly bottom and conclude the bear market before going long. I'm flat until I'm convinced it's time to buy.
@maqpie, I had used it to predict the duration of the bull market before. You can see I mentioned it multiple times during 2016 when it confirmed the signal.
kaka900
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We are 12k from the top, down 60%, you were bullish all the way down till few hours ago and now you give lessons "how it is done"?
IvanLabrie
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@kaka900, oh man, bullish all the way down? Give me a f... break.
You are constantly mocking me, yet, you saw all the signals I gave. Any of my clients can back me up here. We did quite well, despite the decline, and yes, signals take a while to form.
If you're nothing but a critic of my work, then, why pay for signals?
kaka900
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@IvanLabrie, I regret and I want cancel. I don't mock you or anything, I tell the truth. Do you want I spend the next hour marking your bullish buy orders? Just 14h ago you posted bullish chart with target to 14k. After somebody asked you what are the chances you said over 50%! Now you pretending to be bear and give us a lesson?
IvanLabrie
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@kaka900, you clearly have no idea how trading works...and haven't paid enough attention. It's perfectly fine to adjust your view with new data. We manage risk and do the best we can. You say like I was holding btc all the way down, I would be down a lot, yet I'm not. You didn't mention the longs that worked, and the shorts, and the timing to go to cash. So you make me look like a fool, when I'm not.
Cancel, go ahead, you apparently lack reading comprehension, so you won't be able to benefit from the signals...
Lanmar
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@kaka900, trading signals change often. Respect that and be flexible, or you in the lose long run
IvanLabrie
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@Lanmar, it's challenging to remain flexible, while sticking to a systematic approach for the most part.
Lanmar
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@IvanLabrie, Of course, very challenging.. My response was geared toward kaka900. It's necessary to manage risk and cut losses. Having exits if something no longer looks as healthy or breaks an invalidation level should be part of the systematic approach. But sometimes things smell off.. and that's ok.
grahnite
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Very nice! What is your view on alts during this time - hopefully we could see some good action with alts?