while the over all picture is still bearish , we can see some new signs of life for a short term reversal. Bitcoin looked like it was going to all new monthly lows when it broke down to 9500. However, there were a few indications that this reversal to 10200 was about to happen forming on the MACD , CMF and OBV. The CMF , OBV were forming a bullish divergence on the one hour and four hour. The MACD never crossed on the hourly despite the 400 dollar fall from 9900. Once price reversed above 9.9k, we saw a big spike. This is probably due to the stops around this price for multiple different reasons and trading strategies. (That's where i re-entered bitcoin with a stop below 9500.) What I am looking for is a higher low and a higher high. If the price can retrace to roughly 9950 than bounce above 10200 which is a good entry point for anyone who hasn't entered the market yet. This would be a sign of life that a reversal is more likely to play out. Some indications to support this is, the MACD has crossed on the 4 hour. The CMF will be positive on the 4 hour at the break of 10200. BTC will have cross the 50 day moving average. At this point, It will look like a new trend is forming and most likely it will break above the low of the ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour which has served as restance.
Where will the reversal end? There are a couple possibilities. Firstly, the biggest reversal area i am looking at is the 20 day moving average, currently at around 10850. If we can get above that bitcoin is likely to go to 11k and break to 12500. Those are my biggest targets. Anything above 13.2k and I will be speculating for new yearly highs. Other resistance points I am looking at are 10500, and 11500. I am only taking small profits to reduce risk at 10500. and I will be looking for a head and shoulders failure at 11500. I believe it's unlikely to fall to new monthly lows from 10500. but more so at 10850. This is just a short term analysis of what i currently think of the market. I am over all bearish and still looking for a retracement to the 8k's, 7k's, and possibly the 6k's. I do not think anyone should discount the fact that this could go to new highs, but it's very unlikely at this point imo.
Where will the reversal end? There are a couple possibilities. Firstly, the biggest reversal area i am looking at is the 20 day moving average, currently at around 10850. If we can get above that bitcoin is likely to go to 11k and break to 12500. Those are my biggest targets. Anything above 13.2k and I will be speculating for new yearly highs. Other resistance points I am looking at are 10500, and 11500. I am only taking small profits to reduce risk at 10500. and I will be looking for a head and shoulders failure at 11500. I believe it's unlikely to fall to new monthly lows from 10500. but more so at 10850. This is just a short term analysis of what i currently think of the market. I am over all bearish and still looking for a retracement to the 8k's, 7k's, and possibly the 6k's. I do not think anyone should discount the fact that this could go to new highs, but it's very unlikely at this point imo.