BTC is on the rise again and with some strength. The bounce looks Impulsive more than Corrective. Plotted are possible pathways back to 13k or higher.
BUT we are due for a small pullback right about now. The retrace behavior will be telling of the strength. It is also possible to blow through the fist resistance.
11,143-147 is immediate resistance with a tight confluence. 11,394-555 is wide but diffuse zone of resistance nearby. 12,354-525 is strong resistance requiring repeated attacks.
BTC is on the rise again and looks quite impulsive
Part of my ongoing Bitcoin analysis, been hitting every important turn (click): (perfect bounce) (early but valid) <=Perfect TP <=Perfect TP <=6 wks ago <=Perfect Entry (the EXACT bottom)
Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
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Dip was more violent than expected, but expectable none the less Possible for one more leg down to test 10,5xxx
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1min fib of the dip bulls need to push past 10.8k asap.
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Retrace has gone a little deeper that my highly enthusiastic plot for wave 4, but it seems to have found support at the green zone that I knew would be a good support. Lets see if it holds. If it breaks, then 10.2k is the next and perhaps last support before the entire 5 wave Impulse comes into question.
We just dropped $480, around 4.5%. We may not be going anywhere.
glitterboy
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@BDG, Start of wave 2 which will take us down to 9998 IMHO.
glitterboy
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@glitterboy, Also that first wick down was stopped by the neckline of the I H+S if it ends up being one. Looking like it will fail though.
BDG
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I see it. The neckline is slightly above 10.5k. So if it falls below 10.5k we're headed back down. Too bad. It looked like it was bullish again. I better cancel my order for the Ferrari. LOL
BDG
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@BDG, BTW, I thought the price moving through the neckline (upwards) of an inverse H&S was for bullish moves. If the price falls below the neckline of an inverse H&S, is it now a bearish indicator?
glitterboy
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@BDG, Per Bulkowski: "Not all chart patterns work as expected. For H+S bottoms, that means 14% will bust. A bust occurs when price breaks out of the H+S bottom but rises less than 10% before reversing and closing below the head."
However,
"After price breaks out of the chart pattern, it throws back (returns) to the breakout price 56% of the time. [...] After that, if owners of the stock are lucky, price climbs to higher ground. That happens 75% of the time. The other 25% see the stock continue lower, closing below the bottom of the chart pattern."
So according to Bulkowski a H+S bottom is not bearish unless we get a close before the head. I'm guessing though that based on other indicators besides chart patterns we will see a reversal before we get to that point. Bulkowski calls that a "Double busted H+S", because it's busted the first time when we fail to move more than 10% above the breakout (neckline), and then fail to move 10% below the head. Keep in mind his chart pattern definitions are based on the way he's programmed a computer to identify them, so they may be a little different than what the human eye perceives.
Of course, this time could be one of the 56% that bounces off the neckline and keeps going up, yielding a 33% median or 49% average rise.
BDG
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@glitterboy, thanks for the info. But my question was, can "inverse" head & shoulder patterns be used as a bearish pattern if the price falls through the neckline? I thought Inverse Head & Shoulder patterns were only used as a bullish indicator, not bearish.
glitterboy
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@BDG, Haha sorry! It's not written exactly that way but I think the answer is yes, although Bulkowski gives the reason as failing to rise more than 10% rather than breaking the neckline. 49% of patterns kept going down and an additional 15% reversed up, then reversed again down and kept going (making a triple bust). So, 64% bearish in my reading.
In other words, a BUSTED H+S is a continuation indicator but it's only "busted" if it closes below the head.
Although, if the end of wave 1 is where @EuroMotif has it and I think it is (although I think it's a subwave 1 of 1), that would have to make this a complex H+S with two heads. He doesn't have as good figures on those but suffice to say they don't perform as well as a regular H+S.