During both of the previous bull cycles when the price touched or almost touched the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, Bitcoin pulled back considerably and consolidated until the final (and more aggressive) parabolic bull run.
To be more specific:
In 2012 the price declined roughly -50% upon testing the 0.382 Fibonacci and consolidated for 147 days before breaking out to the new parabolic rise.
In 2015 the price declined roughly -40% upon testing the 0.382 Fibonacci and consolidated for 203 days before breaking out to the new parabolic rise. This shows that the decline was by 10% weaker and lasted longer by roughly 50 days.
Based on the above parameters we have to assume that if the 0.382 Fibonacci is rejected, the same sequence will be followed, i.e. weaker decline (by 10%) and longer duration (by 50 days). However we have seen that the current bull cycle has been far more aggressive than the previous one, which leads me to believe that if 0.382 is rejected (possibly on 10k) the duration will follow the opposite sequence i.e. be shorter.
*Notice how the price reaches the 0.382 Fibonacci right after it crosses above the MA50, which instantly becomes a support all the way until the next bear market.
All the above projections are of course at the moment just a guess as BTC has made a very aggressive start to this bull cycle and we as traders should be trading the trend.
Do you think that the 0.382 Fibonacci level will play any part on this bull cycle or not? Let me know in the comments section!
It is hard to believe that a 40% correction from 10k means we will see 6k again. If that happens there will be a flood of tears in the streets. People better get flood insurance. LOL
olleyy
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@BDG, Yeah it might happen, we still need to make a local high on the monthly, and then a higher low. Implies downside, but everyone is gonna be sweating when it drops lol
TradingShot
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@BDG, Indeed but smart money will be buying in tons.
BDG
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@TradingShot, correct. Fidelity is suppose to be opening within weeks and their customers can order BTC from any Bloomberg terminal. Bakkt may open later this summer. That opens up the retail market for millionaires and billionaires. There are approximately 36 million millionaires in the world and roughly 5-7 million BTC that are traded. The rest are held by hodlers or in long term private wallets.
Advertising for BTC will also start up this summer. If BTC price does correct, it will have to do so quickly and for a very short period of time. But I don't see it happening unless it is a quick trip to 8400 or 8000 that lasts for a few days. Other than that, we should be getting quite a tail wind for the prices this fall.
Poukitoun
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@BDG, I got my entries at 6k, 5k and 3k so it should be fine :D
raghavgrover013
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BTC Exploded
CryptoManiac101
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TradingShot
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@CryptoManiac101, You already posted that one. Please follow the house rules.